The 2026 AFL finals are shaping up to be a thrilling affair, with just one week left before the grand finale. With 10 teams still in the running, the race to the premiership is far from over. Here's a breakdown of the final round and the predicted outcomes, with a focus on the top 10 teams and their paths to the grand final.
The Top Contenders
Fremantle (19-3, 142.5%): The Dockers are on fire, having claimed the second minor premiership in club history. They host Carlton at Marvel Stadium and are favorites to finish 1st. A win would secure them the top spot and a favorable qualifying final against Hawthorn.
Sydney Swans (17-5, 134.5%): The Swans clinched second place to end Round 23. They host North Melbourne at the SCG and are likely to face either the Lions or the Hawks in the second qualifying final. With a win, they secure second place and a home qualifying final.
Brisbane Lions (15-7, 119.5%): The Lions are in a strong position, with a 7-goal percentage lead over Hawthorn. They face Collingwood at the MCG and a win would secure them a top-four spot and a favorable qualifying final against Sydney.
Hawthorn (14-6-2, 117.3%): The Hawks are in a tight race, with a 7-goal deficit to Brisbane. They host West Coast Eagles and need to win big to avoid the Fremantle qualifying final. Dylan Moore's injury is a concern, as it could impact their chances.
Melbourne (15-7, 111.2%): The Demons are on the cusp of a top-four finish. They face Western Bulldogs at the MCG and need a win to secure their spot. A loss could see them drop to 7th, where they'd host a wildcard game.
The Wildcard Contenders
Geelong (14-8, 120.2%): The Cats avoided a banana peel against North Melbourne and are now focused on avoiding the wildcard. They host Richmond and a win would secure them 6th place and a week off before an elimination final.
Adelaide Crows (14-8, 115.1%): The Crows' loss to Fremantle means they need help to avoid the wildcard. They face GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval and need an upset loss above them to sneak back into the top six.
Collingwood (12-8-2, 106.1%): The Pies are locked into the 8 vs 9 wildcard final, regardless of their result. They host Brisbane Lions and will rest players to prepare for the final.
Western Bulldogs (12-9-1, 94.1%): The Bulldogs need to beat Melbourne and hope for a Carlton loss to secure 8th place. A loss could see them drop to 9th and face Adelaide in a wildcard game.
Carlton (11-10-1, 99.6%): The Blues played for a draw against the Bulldogs, securing their finals spot. They need to beat Fremantle and hope for a Bulldogs loss to Melbourne to secure 9th place. A loss could see them drop to 10th and face Adelaide.
The Eliminations
- St Kilda and GWS Giants: Both teams were eliminated by Carlton's draw against the Western Bulldogs.
- North Melbourne: The Kangaroos were eliminated by their loss to Geelong.
The Final Ladder
- Fremantle (19-4)
- Sydney Swans (18-5)
- Brisbane Lions (16-7)
- Hawthorn (15-6-2)
- Melbourne (16-7)
- Geelong (15-8)
- Adelaide Crows (15-8)
- Collingwood (12-9-2)
- Carlton (12-10-1)
- Western Bulldogs (12-10-1)
- St Kilda (11-12)
- GWS Giants (10-13)
- North Melbourne (9-14)
- Gold Coast Suns (8-15)
- Port Adelaide (7-16)
- West Coast Eagles (4-19)
- Richmond (3-20)
- Essendon (2-21)
Key Talking Points
- Dylan Moore's Injury: A significant development, as it could impact Hawthorn's chances and the likelihood of a Dockers-Lions grand final.
- Melbourne's Top-Four Hopes: The Demons are on the brink of something special, with a win over the Bulldogs and a Collingwood upset putting them in the running for a top-four finish.
- Adelaide's Wildcard Fate: The Crows need help to avoid the wildcard, with a slim chance of catching Geelong on percentage.
- Collingwood's Resting Players: The Pies will rest players to prepare for the final, despite having no reason to care about their position.
- The Bulldogs' Wildcard Battle: The Dogs need to beat Melbourne and hope for a Carlton loss to secure 8th place and avoid a tougher wildcard game.
Round 24 Predictions
- St Kilda vs Gold Coast Suns: St Kilda's season ends, with a likely just-below-mid-table finish.
- Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions: The Lions clinch a top-four finish with victory, while the Magpies play for nothing.
- Carlton vs Fremantle: The Blues play for a draw, hoping for a Bulldogs loss to Melbourne.
- Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: The Bulldogs need to upset the Demons to secure 8th place.
- Geelong vs Richmond: The Cats secure a favorable qualifying final against Adelaide.
- Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants: The Crows need an upset loss above them to sneak back into the top six.
- Essendon vs Port Adelaide: An argument for both sides, with an Essendon win potentially giving Richmond the wooden spoon.
- Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne: The Swans clinch second place and a home qualifying final.
- West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn: The Hawks need to win to secure a top-four spot and avoid the Fremantle qualifying final.
Team-by-Team Finals Scenarios
Each team's path to the grand final is detailed, with analysis of their chances and potential opponents.
